Only one or the other will be relevant in a typical case.) Hard to believe that they have to use a dubious TOB estimating procedure in arguably the world’s most important measurements because a piece of electronic equipment doesn’t have a 50 cent clock chip in it. What you suggest does not, even approximately, take account of TOB. This wouldn’t affect the trend, but it could alter the size of the summer/winter spread, and hence the apparent severity of the weather. This description is wrong–but the effect is real. If it’s warmer than the 11 am pseudo reading, then the minimum for the day has already been taken at 11 am. Statistics? 3 2 25 100 0 measurement time is lower than the day’s min, it replaces that min. The method of slopes would eliminate a lot of confusion. This is shown in Figure 5, and results in a time of observation shift quite similar to that of the USCRN shown in Figure 1, albeit over a 5 year period rather than a 50-year period. The MEAN goes to 69.0 The trend goes to .0001F day. But this is not the place. The bias results from an accumulation of differences in temperatures of “If they are false, then prove it. Darker lines show the data with a lowess smoother applied to show longer-term differences. Oh, there are no confidence intervals, are there. The adjustment to the time series performed by Karl assumes that the Observer follows the If the temperatures rose, the index would remain where it was as the fluid flowed past it. The orginal TOBS study was 7 years of data from I suppose One could create a little excell file to show the C, net upward US average TOB adjustment circa 1941-85. For example, say that today is unusually warm, and that the temperature drops, say, 10 degrees F tomorrow. The folks at WUWT provide a critique of TOBs adjustments today that, ironically, provides a pretty good validation for those adjustments. If I measure my interior oven temp every second after set it to 400 F and turn it on, I’ll probably get a flat diagonal rising line over time as it heats. 10am 0.04 -0.07 0.22 0.18 0.03 0.18 0.24 0.33 0.05 0.26 0.05 0.15 0.15 0.12 13.74 13.68 Periodic cleaning might therefore create even more apparent GW than once-and-for-all blackening without cleaning! Either way, we should end up with four measured values integrated across 1/4 of a “day”. 70 Peter Hartley, Jonathan’s research is interesting but I don’t think it would be applicable to the data sets available for the GHCN/USHCN. Some stations had recording thermometers, but they were generally not used for climate data. In this case, the “vertical” axis of the grid is typically “snapped” (in graphics/drawing parlance) to whole degree units. Also look at Marysville, October 1980. Heres the link. 8 show that there is perceptible downward bias from about 9pm to 8am in July. If you just worked out the rate of change for consistent records (same inst, same site, same TOB etc.) Like the mercury thermometer it was a liquid-in-glass instrument, but without a constriction above the bulb. To include the 24 hour old measurement in the current “day”, then the current measurement should be reserved as the beginning of the next day. over 5 F, then 3 F, and then 2 F, and after each successive flattening, I don’t think so, not if the “siting” issue is natural and impacts the region of interest. Gregory et al 2019: Does climate feedback really vary in AOGCM historical simulations? 5. Thus the daily record is correct and it requires no adjustment. Statistics? Has anyone tried applying the TOBS correction they use to the 7am data you used to see if you get the MIdnight values and/or the correct trend? max-min for the 3 days since Friday. You get a late sunrise. bothers some observers. etc 9:00 51.06 Bias introduced to contiguous U.S. monthly temperatures by synthetic TOBs adjustments. When using point measurement data, if one does not include 24 The TOB process needs to be fully documented. For example, the issue of the Monday reading after a lost weekend – I presume that max-min on Mon afternoon would be for the , Next thing is to consider the different monitoring and recording methods and how they should be properly analyzed. Very long winded, apologies. The example you provide does not shed any light on the problem at hand, which is: Given hourly measurements of temperature, what method best emulates the results that would be produced by daily observations recorded on a min/max thermometer so that time-of-observation bias in a min/max regime can be measured? The bias in TMEAN will be 2.5C How much luck do you suppose I would have if I tried to put them all straight on this occasion? The underlying methodology should work no matter how few hours there are in a day, etc. Temperatures are consistently lower in the TOBS biased data after the shift in observation time for daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures. or do you think the coin is biased? C! The evidence shows that there was little if any such effect. RE 137. In fact the best way to reconstruct a temperature series (IMO) would be to do the slopes and then pick a calibration period and integrate the slopes to find actual temps. We really are making progress, step by step. The NWS manual MrPete links at #99 above doesn’t tell observers what to do if they miss a day — when they return, should they just reset their thermometers without taking a reading, or should they go ahead and report them as their reading for that day?
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